Written by: Haroon Shuaib
Posted on: June 06, 2023 | 
| 中文
Malnutrition is very prevalent in Pakistan and Infographics of Pakistan Human Capital Review
The first national census in Pakistan was held in 1951 and revealed that Pakistan’s total population was 75 million. It reached the mark of 93 million by 1961. In 1972, after the secession of the east wing of the country, its population dropped to 65.3 million that grew to be 80.68 million by 1981. The 1998 census showed that the country’s population had grown to be 134.8 million and further jumped to a record 207.9 million by 2017, showing a record increase of 132.9 million during 65 years. It is estimated that if the present trend of populace growth continued, the country may cross around 260.3 million population in 2030 and 330.8 million by 2050.
The World Bank’s recently released, ‘Pakistan Human Capital Review - Building Capabilities Throughout Life’ report, underlines the need for Pakistan to significantly increase investments in human capital through investing in nutrition, education, early childhood development, gender integration, and labor market readiness of its population to address the severe gaps it faces in human capital outcomes. While Pakistan has made significant progress in reducing poverty over the past two decades, low human capital outcomes limit Pakistan’s further progress, capping its growth and development prospects.
Lire Ersado, The World Bank (WB) Human Capital Practice Lead, unknown, Ms. Mamta Murthy, Vice President of the WB, Ms. Sidra Iqbal, writer, Mr. Faisal Shahzad
The World Bank measures the value of human capital possessed by a country through a systemic Human Capital Index (HCI). The index quantifies the contribution of health and education to the productivity of the next generation of workers in a country. Countries can use it to assess how much income they forego because of human capital gaps and how much faster they can turn these losses into gains, if they act now. HCI is a summary measure of the amount of human capital that a child born today can expect to acquire by age 18, given the risks of poor health and poor education that prevail in the country where he or she lives. Ranging between 0 and 1, the index takes the value 1 only if a child born today can expect to achieve full health (defined as no stunting and survival up to at least age 60) and achieve his or her formal education potential (defined as 14 years of high-quality school by age 18). A country’s score is its distance to the “frontier” of complete education and full health. If it scores 0.70 in the HCI, this indicates that the future earnings potential of children born today will be 70% of what they could have been with complete education and full health. According to this index, without a substantial improvement in what the country is offering to its citizens currently under the age of 18, or those to be born in future. Pakistan’s HCI of 0.41 means that a baby born in the country today will only be 41% as productive as they could be, if they enjoyed complete education and full health. The country’s HCI is lower than the South Asian average of 0.48.
Pakistan Human Capital Review infographics
Pakistan’s population, three-quarters of which is under the age of 35, has experienced impairments such as high probability of stunting due to malnutrition, high risk of mortality before reaching the age of five, high likelihood of being out-of-school, and low likelihood of reaching optimal learning levels. Gender inequality is particularly stark in education and the labor market. All these factors hamper a citizen’s chances to reap optimal dividends during his lifetime. With a high fertility rate, a young population, an exponentially increased population in the next couple of decades and without a considerable positive and swift shift in the listed factors, Pakistan will find itself in an even greater predicament as the health and education infrastructure come under greater stress, unemployment rate increases, and the deficit in drinkable water, energy, and civic services widens.
Children grapple with the reality of displacement due to floods in the Sindh province of Pakistan
The World Bank report suggest that in order to turn the opportunity presented by its human capital and to turn it into a viable asset, Pakistan must bring its population growth under control, invest more in its existing population and reap a demographic dividend, rather than continue to provide low quality health and education services to the ever-growing population. Another facet of Pakistan’s human capital is its low utilization due largely to low female labor force participation. With women constituting more than 50 percent of Pakistan’s population, the country needs to enhance female labor force participation to ensure that families and the country as a whole can benefit from all the talent available. A stronger, healthier, better educated, and economically active human capital is essential for sustainable economic growth. Investments in human capital can also build resilience and adaptive capacity to withstand effects of climate change, and other human or natural disasters that may pose challenges in future with higher frequency.
A Pakistani family in a settlement
According to Najy Benhassine, the World Bank’s Country Director for Pakistan, “With over 20 million school-age children out of school, high levels of child malnutrition, and low empowerment of women, Pakistan’s human capital challenges are among the most serious in the world. The Human Capital Review shows that Pakistan can realize substantial economic growth by bringing its population growth rate under control, investing significantly more in the supply and quality of health and education, and bringing women to the labor force.”
Managing supply and demand is the key to getting 'housing' right in Pakistan
“Pakistan has repeatedly demonstrated it can deliver effective services at scale. In our report, we document that Pakistan has made enormous progress over the last 30 years, despite a massively expanding population. This is because enormous programs have been launched, such as the Lady Health Workers program and free basic and compulsory education. Pakistan’s highly effective management of the Covid-19 pandemic, the national vaccination campaign, and delivery of fast and targeted cash support to about 15 million families, are other shining examples of Pakistan’s state capacity,” according to Lire Ersado, the World Bank’s Human Development Practice Leader for Pakistan, and Task Team Leader for the Pakistan Human Capital Review Report. According to Ersado, with the rapidly growing population brought under control, the right investments in education, health and policy that enable the young population to achieve their full potential, the pay-off can be massive. “Even if the past three decades of improvements can be sustained, GDP per capita is expected to grow by a mere 18% through 2047, the 100th anniversary of Pakistan’s founding. But if Pakistan can boost human capital investments and its HCI to the level of its peers, per capita GDP growth could almost double, to 32%. If Pakistan improves both its human capital and its use of human capital, bringing adults into employment outside of subsistence farming, where the gains from human capital are typically lower, GDP per capita growth could rise by 144%, an eight-fold increase over business-as-usual. The less fortunate and the nation as the whole stand to benefit the most from such as investments,” he adds.
Pakistan has succeeded in its Polio Vaccination drive
The World Bank’s Pakistan Human Capital Report is another timely and blunt reminder that only with the right policies and investments that lead to its human capital becoming healthier, with better education and skills, will make the population more productive.
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