Written by: Waseem Abbas
Posted on: November 09, 2021 | 
| 中文
Pakistan's cricket team
As the super 12 round of the T20 World Cup (WC) has concluded and we head toward the semi-finals, the thrilling matches, upsets, suspense and drama that we witnessed in the last two weeks of this mega-event was mind-boggling.
Supporters of the Pakistan side
International Cricket Council (ICC) posted a video on their social media accounts of cricketers playing in this WC, asking their prediction about the potential champions of the 2021 World Cup (WC). 21 out of 30 interviewees prophesied India to be the winners. This was the magnitude of India’s dominance in the cricketing sphere. Players and pundits were unanimous in their view that India would be a hard nut to crack in this tournament. Indian all-rounder Hardik Pandya had even bragged that India could send three teams to the WC simultaneously, and still emerge as the winners of the World Cup. These predictions were not groundless, as India had conclusively beaten Australia, England, and New Zealand on their home grounds in bilateral series in the last 2 years. Team India is a star-studded T20 lineup, with the likes of Virat Kohli, Rohit Sharma and Jasprit Bumrah in their cadre. India had played most of the 2021 Indian Premier League (IPL) in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to acclimatize to the playing conditions of the host country. It was logical to foresee India as the emerging champions, but then we witnessed cricket's unpredictability.
Virat Kohli flips the coin for toss as Babar Azam stands on his right side
All the preparations and the big names were of no use when in its opening match, India got a thumping defeat at the hands of Pakistan. The first defeat against Pakistan in the history of World Cup, and that also so conclusively, that it affected India's morale and confidence going forward in the tournament. In its next game against New Zealand, India faced another humiliating defeat, thus virtually knocking themselves out of the tournament. Had Afghanistan defeated New Zealand in their group match on the 7th of November, India still had a chance to qualify for the semis, as all the three teams would have ended up with 6 points each in that scenario. India could have qualified based on its better run rate, but New Zealand defeated Afghanistan to officially knock India out of the mega-event. Many factors were responsible for knocking India out of the tournament, including the pressure that came with the tag of being favorites, losing the toss, and being forced to bat first in the first two crucial games.
The four semi-finalists
As the predicted champions India, and the defending champions West Indies, have been knocked out of the event, consequently the tournament is wide open. In the first semi-final, England, which is at the top of group two, will face New Zealand, which is second in group one. In the second semi-final, Pakistan, which is leading group 1, will face Australia, the number 2 in group two, on the 11th of November. The winners of these games will play each other in the final on the 14th of November in Dubai.
Australia's cricket team (L to R) Aaron Finch, Matthew Wade, Adam Zampa and Marcus Stonnis
This World Cup has been a prime example of why predictions in cricket, especially in T20s, are just wild guesses, because only one good over or a bad one, can change the whole dynamics of the match. Asif Ali’s onslaught against Afghanistan’s Karim Janat in the penultimate over of the game is a living example of it. Nonetheless, we can predict the probable outcomes based on our evaluation of the tournament so far, and the form of the teams and the players involved.
Asif Ali and Shadab Khan after defeating Afghanistan
Pakistan will play Australia in the semifinal with the tag of favorites attached to it. Though Australia has made it to the semis and looks like a formidable side, it has failed to perform as a unit in this tournament so far. Individual performances would not be of any help in high-voltage games. Australia has qualified for the semis, rather than South Africa, due to better a run-rate. This will be at the back of the minds of the Australian team. The formula for Pakistan to win the Semi is to play the four overs of Adam Zampa cautiously, who is the second-highest wicket-taker of the event with 11 wickets at 9.9, and an economy rate of 5.73. In batting, David Warner is the only batter in the Australian side who has looked dangerous in this WC, with 187 runs at an average of 46, and a scintillating strike rate of 144. Josh Hazelwood (8 wickets at 13.75) and Aaron Finch (130 runs at the strike rate of 120) are the other two players Pakistan needs to be wary of. Pakistan, on the other hand, has performed as a group, and everyone has chipped in with performances at crucial times. This can be seen from the fact that Pakistan has won all its five games, and have had 5 different Man-of-the-Match winners. If Pakistan plays on its merits and strengths, the way it has performed in its first-round games, I would not be surprised if Pakistan makes it to the final.
Pakistan's Man-of-the-Match winners in all 5 games
Pakistan seems to be in a formidable form, with the openers and the fast bowlers performing well as usual. Batting looks to be the strength of the team, with the two consistent accumulators (Babar and Rizwan) at the top, two senior pros (Hafeez and Malik) in the middle, and two power hitters (Fakhar and Asif) floating in the batting order. Pakistani pacers, especially Shaheen Afridi and Harris Rauf, have performed brilliantly and attracted all the spotlight, and rightly so, but the Pakistani spinners have been the real game-changers so far in this event. Although Shadab Khan has only five wickets in as many games, but his average of 22.40 and economy rate of a meager 5.83, sealed the deal for Pakistan. Imad Wasim complimented him well with 4 wickets so far, with an economy of brilliant 5.23. The conventional worry for Pakistan in this tournament, as it has been in the past as well, was the dwindling middle order and power-hitting department. However, Asif Ali's blistering knocks against Afghanistan and New Zealand, and Shoaib Malik’s scintillating 18-ball-54 against Scotland, seem to have resolved the power-hitting worries. Pakistan’s death-overs (17th to 20th over) batting run rate is a staggering 14.58, the highest of any team in this tournament, with 19 sixes and 13 fours. The ratio of balls per boundary is 2.90, and balls per six is 4.89, the best in this competition in the death-overs.
England's cricket team
England will face New Zealand in the second semi-final. England looks to be the stronger of the two teams, as they have played spin better throughout the tournament, and have destructive power hitters and in-form spinners in their amour. They have the confidence of being the best team from the ‘group of death’, while New Zealand was number two in the lesser group. England team's strength lies in their astute captaincy, the in-form power hitters like Joss Buttler (the second-highest run-scorer of the tournament, with 240 runs at an average of 120 and the strike rate of 155), Jason Roy (123 runs at strike rate of 138), Liam Livingstone and Moeen Ali. In bowling, England has been doing exceptionally well, with the fast bowlers effectively complementing the spinners. Adil Rashid (8 wickets at 13.37 and an economy rate of 5.83) and Moeen Ali (7 wickets at 11 and an economy rate of 5.5) have restricted the run flow, and also chipped in with wickets at crucial times. This game will be against England's batters and Kiwi’s bowlers, and the team with strong nerves on the day will seal the deal. Martin Guptil, Trent Boult, Tim Southee and Ish Sodhi will be key for New Zealand's chances. However, the team’s batting failure throughout the tournament, barring Guptil, is an area of concern for them.
New Zealand's cricket team
According to my calculations and assessments, the winners of 2009 T20 WC, Pakistan, will face the winners of T20 WC 2010, England, in the final of 2021 T20 WC. Pakistan, not having lost a single game of the mega-event, will be ready to roar at the English side. Pakistan needs to be wary of Joss Buttler, if he stays in the crease for more than 6 overs, Pakistan’s chances will be bleak. Also, how Pakistan plays the 8 overs of Moeen and Rashid will decide the course of the game. If Pakistan maintains the poise in the high-voltage game and executes its plans, there is no reason to doubt Babar and his men’s ability to repeat history and win another T20 WC after 12 long years.
Group 1 and 2 standings after the conclusion of super 12 round
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